De Graafschap 0-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 13 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion De Vijverberg. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for De Graafschap against 2.20 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus PEC Zwolle 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 55% | PEC Zwolle 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.44 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.895 / defence 0.843 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.284 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.799 / away 1.281. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 De Graafschap games / 28 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 20% | PEC Zwolle 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG De Graafschap 1.44 / PEC Zwolle 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.895 / def 0.843 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.284 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.799 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.39
PEC Zwolle xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle?
De Graafschap 0 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle part of?
De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 39% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.90x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.28x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.98
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.83
1.39
PEC Zwolle xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.39 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 62 games, going 23W 18D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.45 PPG from 62 outings (27W 9D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.45 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 10W 11D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.42 points per game from 31 outings (14W 2D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.68 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 23W 18D 21L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 27W 9D 26L in their last 62 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.32 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.42 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
De Graafschap
0
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2023, when De Graafschap 0-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 55%, PEC Zwolle 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (De Graafschap) and 55% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 32%; PEC Zwolle in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 36% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of De Graafschap's recent games and 55% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat De Graafschap 0-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.44 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.39 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.28 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 55%, PEC Zwolle 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.40 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.