De Graafschap 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 0W 7D 3L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for De Graafschap, 1.40 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, NAC Breda in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with NAC Breda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 56% versus NAC Breda 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.33 xG and NAC Breda 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.802 / defence 1.039 | NAC Breda attack 1.149 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.329. Data: 43 De Graafschap games / 43 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 32% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 43%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 32% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG De Graafschap 1.33 / NAC Breda 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.802 / def 1.039 | NAC Breda attack 1.149 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.59
NAC Breda xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kick off?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda part of?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 32% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both De Graafschap and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.80x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.15x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
32%
3.11
24%
4.09
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.92
1.59
NAC Breda xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.59 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 13D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.53 PPG from 45 outings (19W 12D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.53 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 4W 10D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.14 points per game from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.53 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 19W 12D 14L in their last 45 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.00 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.14 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 59%, NAC Breda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (De Graafschap) and 64% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap have failed to score in 27% of games; NAC Breda in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of De Graafschap's games and 54% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of De Graafschap's recent games and 64% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and NAC Breda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 6, as De Graafschap and NAC Breda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.33 xG and NAC Breda 1.59 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against NAC Breda attack 1.15 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 32% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 43%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.36 PPG, NAC Breda 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.