De Graafschap 0-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face MVV.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees MVV travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vijverberg. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
MVV — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
De Graafschap are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of De Graafschap: 4 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for MVV, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives De Graafschap a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
MVV trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus MVV 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | MVV 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.43 xG and MVV 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.171 / defence 0.978 | MVV attack 0.740 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.275. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 De Graafschap games / 40 MVV games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 70% | Draw 17% | MVV 12%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | MVV 8.33. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 50% | MVV 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 70% | Draw 17% | MVV 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 55% | xG De Graafschap 2.43 / MVV 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.171 / def 0.978 | MVV attack 0.740 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.92
MVV xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs MVV kick off?
De Graafschap vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 August 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
De Graafschap 0 - 1 MVV.
Where is De Graafschap vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs MVV part of?
De Graafschap vs MVV is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 70% chance of winning, MVV a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both De Graafschap and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 3 | MVV 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. MVV (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.17) and MVV's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
70%
1.42
17%
5.87
12%
8.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.35
0.92
MVV xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
8.02
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
9%
11.31
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
1%
90.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.92 for MVV, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 19W 9D 12L from 40 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 20L across 40 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over MVV heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 14W 3D 3L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
MVV's away record stands at 1W 6D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
MVV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while MVV have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or MVV away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.25 PPG; MVV away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
4
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and MVV?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 55%, MVV 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (De Graafschap) and 45% (MVV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; MVV in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 40% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of De Graafschap's matches and 45% of MVV's.
Do De Graafschap and MVV tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, MVV in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as MVV defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat De Graafschap 0-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.43 xG and MVV 0.92 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against MVV attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 70% | Draw 17% | MVV 12%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a MVV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, MVV 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
MVV's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with MVV winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.