De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Jong Utrecht travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L at De Vijverberg — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 0.70 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of De Graafschap: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Jong Utrecht, with 5 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Jong Utrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 67% | Jong Utrecht 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.90 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.778 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 43 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 38%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Utrecht 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Jong Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG De Graafschap 1.90 / Jong Utrecht 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.778 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Jong Utrecht xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 40% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 5 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.01x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
40%
2.48
21%
4.66
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.75
1.85
Jong Utrecht xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
6%
15.70
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.85 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 17W 11D 15L from 43 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 21L across 43 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.44 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.47 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Utrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
5
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 76%, Jong Utrecht at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 57% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 62% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 57% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.