De Graafschap 3-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong PSV U21 in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for De Graafschap, 0 for Jong PSV U21 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus Jong PSV U21 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 54% | Jong PSV U21 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.36 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.882 / defence 0.776 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.084 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.376. De Graafschap's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 De Graafschap games / 52 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Jong PSV U21 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Jong PSV U21 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG De Graafschap 1.36 / Jong PSV U21 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.882 / def 0.776 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.084 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Jong PSV U21 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap 3 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 42% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.08x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.74
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.52
1.16
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.16 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 15D 19L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 15W 16D 21L from 52 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.17 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (7W 11D 8L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 10D 11L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.58 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 15D 19L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 16D 21L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.23 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.96 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
De Graafschap have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 8, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for De Graafschap, 73% for Jong PSV U21 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (De Graafschap) and 54% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of De Graafschap's games and 73% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of De Graafschap's recent games and 54% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Jong PSV U21 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 3-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.36 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.88 / defence 0.78 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 54%, Jong PSV U21 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.33 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.