De Graafschap 5-3 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Heracles travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion De Vijverberg. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Heracles — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Heracles have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Heracles's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Heracles and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Heracles in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 54% versus Heracles 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 55% | Heracles 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.22 xG and Heracles 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.835 / defence 0.813 | Heracles attack 1.320 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.312. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 De Graafschap games / 31 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 32% | Draw 26% | Heracles 41%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Heracles 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 20% | Heracles 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 32% | Draw 26% | Heracles 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG De Graafschap 1.22 / Heracles 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.835 / def 0.813 | Heracles attack 1.320 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Heracles (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Heracles xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Heracles kick off?
De Graafschap vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Heracles?
De Graafschap 5 - 3 Heracles.
Where is De Graafschap vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Heracles part of?
De Graafschap vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 32% chance of winning, Heracles a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Heracles in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.83x the league average against Heracles's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
32%
3.08
26%
3.83
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.62
1.41
Heracles xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.41 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 24W 18D 25L from 67 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 30W 11D 26L across 67 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.34 PPG, Heracles on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 10W 11D 12L from 33 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 11W 3D 19L across 33 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.81 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Heracles in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 24W 18D 25L in their last 67 games (1.34 PPG), while Heracles have gone 30W 11D 26L in their last 67 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Heracles away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.24 PPG; Heracles away: 1.09 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Heracles in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
1
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, Heracles have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when De Graafschap 5-3 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 52%, Heracles 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (De Graafschap) and 61% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Heracles in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 46% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of De Graafschap's recent games and 61% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Heracles tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Heracles in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Heracles 5-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.22 xG and Heracles 1.41 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.83 / defence 0.81 against Heracles attack 1.32 / defence 0.84, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 32% | Draw 26% | Heracles 41%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 55%, Heracles 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Heracles's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.34 PPG, Heracles 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.