De Graafschap 2-3 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.50 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for De Graafschap, 2 for Helmond Sport and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 1–3 with Helmond Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Helmond Sport trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Helmond Sport 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 69% | Helmond Sport 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.50 xG and Helmond Sport 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.269 / defence 1.055 | Helmond Sport attack 0.754 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.300. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Helmond Sport's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 De Graafschap games / 42 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 44% | Draw 33% | Helmond Sport 23%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Helmond Sport 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 70% | Helmond Sport 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 44% | Draw 33% | Helmond Sport 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG De Graafschap 1.50 / Helmond Sport 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.269 / def 1.055 | Helmond Sport attack 0.754 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Helmond Sport xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kick off?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap 2 - 3 Helmond Sport.
Where is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport part of?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 44% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.27) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
44%
2.25
33%
3.06
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.53
1.03
Helmond Sport xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.03 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 21W 7D 14L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Helmond Sport's form line: 16W 11D 15L from 42 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.67 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 5W 5D 11L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Helmond Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 7D 14L in their last 42 games (1.67 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Helmond Sport away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.05 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.95 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
1
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Helmond Sport 0-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 62%, Helmond Sport 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (De Graafschap) and 52% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 33%; Helmond Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 48% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of De Graafschap's matches and 52% of Helmond Sport's.
Do De Graafschap and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat De Graafschap 2-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.50 xG and Helmond Sport 1.03 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Helmond Sport outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.27 / defence 1.05 against Helmond Sport attack 0.75 / defence 0.76, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 44% | Draw 33% | Helmond Sport 23%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Helmond Sport win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 69%, Helmond Sport 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.67 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.