De Graafschap 0-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host ADO Den Haag at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.90 PPG versus ADO Den Haag's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 0 for ADO Den Haag and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 53% versus ADO Den Haag 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | ADO Den Haag 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.43 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.030 / defence 0.917 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.873 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.815 / away 1.356. ADO Den Haag's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 71 De Graafschap games / 71 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 29%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 3.45. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 30% | ADO Den Haag 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG De Graafschap 1.43 / ADO Den Haag 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.030 / def 0.917 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.873 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.815 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.09
ADO Den Haag xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
De Graafschap 0 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag part of?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 1 | ADO Den Haag 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.03) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.79
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
ADO Den Haag xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.09 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 73 games, going 28W 19D 26L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.70 PPG from 73 outings (35W 19D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.41 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 12W 11D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.61 points per game from 36 outings (16W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.71 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 63%.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 28W 19D 26L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 35W 19D 19L in their last 73 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.31 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.61 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
De Graafschap's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
3
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 50%, ADO Den Haag 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (De Graafschap) and 56% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of De Graafschap's recent games and 56% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat De Graafschap 0-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.43 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.87 / defence 0.77, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 29%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, ADO Den Haag 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.41 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.