Cambuur 2-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as Cambuur welcome Willem II to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cambuur, 0 for Willem II and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Willem II in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 45% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 45% | Willem II 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.18 xG and Willem II 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.037 / defence 0.821 | Willem II attack 0.835 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.203. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Cambuur games / 4 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 68% | Draw 19% | Willem II 13%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Willem II 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Cambuur 60% | Willem II 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 68% | Draw 19% | Willem II 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 50% | xG Cambuur 2.18 / Willem II 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.037 / def 0.821 | Willem II attack 0.835 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Willem II xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Willem II kick off?
Cambuur vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 September 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Willem II?
Cambuur 2 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Cambuur vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Willem II part of?
Cambuur vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 68% chance of winning, Willem II a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cambuur and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 2 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Willem II in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.04x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.32
13%
7.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.00
0.82
Willem II xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
7.75
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
11%
8.82
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
1%
68.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.82 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur's recent record stands at 24W 6D 12L from 42 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 24L across 42 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 13W 3D 5L from 21 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.07 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Willem II in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 24W 6D 12L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Willem II have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Willem II away?
Cambuur's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.00 PPG; Willem II away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Willem II in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
3
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Willem II have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Willem II 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Willem II?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 52%, Willem II 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cambuur) and 38% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Willem II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cambuur's recent matches and 57% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cambuur's recent games and 38% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and Willem II tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and Willem II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Cambuur and Willem II drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.18 xG and Willem II 0.82 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.04 / defence 0.82 against Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 68% | Draw 19% | Willem II 13%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 45%, Willem II 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.