Cambuur 5-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Kooi Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kooi Stadion, Cambuur have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, VVV Venlo have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Cambuur's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cambuur 2W, VVV Venlo 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 62% versus VVV Venlo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 59% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.37 xG and VVV Venlo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.792 / defence 0.919 | VVV Venlo attack 1.016 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.308. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Cambuur games / 64 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 40% | Draw 28% | VVV Venlo 33%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | VVV Venlo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 40% | Draw 28% | VVV Venlo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Cambuur 1.37 / VVV Venlo 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.792 / def 0.919 | VVV Venlo attack 1.016 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.22
VVV Venlo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Cambuur vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Cambuur 5 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo part of?
Cambuur vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 40% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambuur and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are Cambuur and VVV Venlo in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.79) and VVV Venlo's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (1.02x) against Cambuur's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.59
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.59
1.22
VVV Venlo xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.22 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 27W 11D 26L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 20W 14D 30L from 64 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Cambuur against 1.16 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.29 PPG from 31 outings (11W 7D 13L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 8W 7D 16L from 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.23 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 27W 11D 26L in their last 64 games (1.44 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 20W 14D 30L in their last 64 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or VVV Venlo away?
Cambuur's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.29 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 5-0 on 28 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 68%, VVV Venlo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Cambuur and 64% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cambuur's games and 52% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Cambuur's matches and 64% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Cambuur and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 5-0 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat VVV Venlo 5-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.37 xG and VVV Venlo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.79 / defence 0.92 against VVV Venlo attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 40% | Draw 28% | VVV Venlo 33%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 59%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.44 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.