Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host VVV Venlo at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.70 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VVV Venlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour VVV Venlo, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Almere City FC.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with VVV Venlo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VVV Venlo have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 67% versus VVV Venlo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 72% | VVV Venlo 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.86 xG and VVV Venlo 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / defence 0.879 | VVV Venlo attack 0.972 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.702. Data: 43 Almere City FC games / 43 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 47% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 30%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | VVV Venlo 3.33. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 47% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Almere City FC 1.86 / VVV Venlo 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / def 0.879 | VVV Venlo attack 0.972 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.702 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
VVV Venlo xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo part of?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 47% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Almere City FC and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
Record (8 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 2 | VVV Venlo 5W.
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
47%
2.12
22%
4.44
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.45
VVV Venlo xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
5%
21.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.45 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 22W 6D 15L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo's form line: 16W 6D 21L from 43 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Almere City FC are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VVV Venlo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.47 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 15L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 16W 6D 21L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or VVV Venlo away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.86 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 57%, VVV Venlo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Almere City FC and 62% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Almere City FC's games and 57% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Almere City FC and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.