Almere City FC 3-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC OSS at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and FC OSS meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 September 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS (all games): 3W 0D 1L across 4 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.25 points per game. Last five: W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS arrive in superior form — a 1.25 PPG advantage (2.25 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 100% and FC OSS 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 75% | FC OSS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.02 xG and FC OSS 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.898 / defence 1.090 | FC OSS attack 0.680 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.443. Data: 4 Almere City FC games / 4 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 34% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 36%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | FC OSS 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 100% | FC OSS 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 34% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Almere City FC 1.02 / FC OSS 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.898 / def 1.090 | FC OSS attack 0.680 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC OSS xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC OSS kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC OSS kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Almere City FC 3 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC OSS part of?
Almere City FC vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 34% chance of winning, FC OSS a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Almere City FC and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and FC OSS in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.68x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.33
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.07
FC OSS xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.07 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS's form line: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC OSS are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almere City FC.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC OSS in 25%.
Defensively: FC OSS in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Almere City FC or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC OSS in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Almere City FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 0-5 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Almere City FC
0
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 6, FC OSS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Almere City FC 3-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 100%, FC OSS 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Almere City FC and 50% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Almere City FC's games and 25% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Almere City FC's matches and 50% of FC OSS's.
Do Almere City FC and FC OSS tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC OSS 3-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.02 xG and FC OSS 1.07 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against FC OSS attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 34% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 36%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 75%, FC OSS 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC OSS arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.