Almere City FC 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 10 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 1W 2D 1L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 3L from 9 games (1.78 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 1.33. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, De Graafschap are the stronger side — 0.78 PPG clear of the hosts (1.78 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 89% and De Graafschap 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 78% | De Graafschap 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.22 xG and De Graafschap 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.051 / defence 1.341 | De Graafschap attack 1.107 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.377. Data: 9 Almere City FC games / 9 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 22% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 56%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 1.79. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 75% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 22% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Almere City FC 1.22 / De Graafschap 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.051 / def 1.341 | De Graafschap attack 1.107 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.04
De Graafschap xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kick off?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 10 October 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Almere City FC 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap part of?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 22% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Almere City FC and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.11x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
22%
4.47
21%
4.71
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.27
2.04
De Graafschap xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
13%
7.72
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
3%
34.49
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Almere City FC and 2.04 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 3L across 9 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 3W 0D 1L across 4 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.78 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.78 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.25 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when De Graafschap 2-2 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 75%, De Graafschap 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Almere City FC and 75% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Almere City FC's games and 50% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Almere City FC's matches and 75% of De Graafschap's.
Do Almere City FC and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Almere City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Almere City FC 1-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.22 xG and De Graafschap 2.04 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.34 against De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 0.87, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 22% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 56%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 78%, De Graafschap 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.