ADO Den Haag 3-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WerkTalent Stadion plays host to ADO Den Haag versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at WerkTalent Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for ADO Den Haag, 1.50 for MVV — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, ADO Den Haag are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 4–3 with ADO Den Haag winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ADO Den Haag and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
ADO Den Haag half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 61% versus MVV 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 67% | MVV 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.26 xG and MVV 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.008 / defence 0.965 | MVV attack 0.793 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 ADO Den Haag games / 64 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 61% | Draw 22% | MVV 17%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | MVV 5.88. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 70% | MVV 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: WerkTalent Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 61% | Draw 22% | MVV 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG ADO Den Haag 2.26 / MVV 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.008 / def 0.965 | MVV attack 0.793 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.14
MVV xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs MVV kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at WerkTalent Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs MVV?
ADO Den Haag 3 - 0 MVV.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at WerkTalent Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs MVV part of?
ADO Den Haag vs MVV is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 61% chance of winning, MVV a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both ADO Den Haag and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and MVV?
Record (9 meetings): ADO Den Haag 6W | Draws 1 | MVV 2W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and MVV in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.79x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.61
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.40
1.14
MVV xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
10%
9.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
2%
56.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.14 for MVV, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 38W 11D 15L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 18W 16D 30L from 64 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against MVV.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.06 PPG from 32 outings (21W 3D 8L).
On the road, MVV have gone 4W 9D 19L from 32 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.31 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and MVV in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 38W 11D 15L in their last 64 games (1.95 PPG), while MVV have gone 18W 16D 30L in their last 64 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or MVV away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.06 PPG; MVV away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 2-6 on 1 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 7, MVV have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when ADO Den Haag 3-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and MVV?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 62%, MVV 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for ADO Den Haag and 53% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 41% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ADO Den Haag vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 53% of MVV's.
Do ADO Den Haag and MVV tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, MVV in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 3-0 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat MVV 3-0 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.26 xG and MVV 1.14 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. MVV landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against MVV attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 61% | Draw 22% | MVV 17%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 67%, MVV 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.