Virtus Entella 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale plays host to Virtus Entella versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 23 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Juve Stabia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.12 xG and Juve Stabia 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Juve Stabia attack 0.918 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.189. Data: 0 Virtus Entella games / 38 Juve Stabia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Virtus Entella 1.12 / Juve Stabia 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Juve Stabia attack 0.918 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Virtus Entella 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia part of?
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 32% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Virtus Entella's attack at 0.85x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.92x) against Virtus Entella's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
32%
3.17
30%
3.29
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.38
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.25 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Pre-Season
Juve Stabia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-0 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.12 xG and Juve Stabia 1.25 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Juve Stabia attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.