Virtus Entella 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Comunale to face Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Virtus Entella have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Comunale, Virtus Entella have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Carrarese away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Virtus Entella against 1.30 for Carrarese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Virtus Entella lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with Carrarese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Virtus Entella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 51% versus Carrarese 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 35% | Carrarese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.56 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.944 / defence 1.008 | Carrarese attack 0.891 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Data: 37 Virtus Entella games / 75 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 50% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 21%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 4.76. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Virtus Entella at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 70% | Carrarese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 50% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Virtus Entella 1.56 / Carrarese 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.944 / def 1.008 | Carrarese attack 0.891 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Carrarese xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Carrarese kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Virtus Entella 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Carrarese part of?
Virtus Entella vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 50% chance of winning, Carrarese a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Virtus Entella and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Virtus Entella 0W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Carrarese in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (0.94) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.89x) against Virtus Entella's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.48
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.51
0.95
Carrarese xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
22.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 0.95 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Virtus Entella have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 9W 12D 16L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Carrarese's form line: 10W 14D 13L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Virtus Entella against 1.19 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Virtus Entella have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (8W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 6D 9L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.24 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 14D 13L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Carrarese away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.72 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Virtus Entella or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Virtus Entella have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Carrarese in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Virtus Entella
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Virtus Entella 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 67%, Carrarese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Virtus Entella) and 56% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Virtus Entella's games and 61% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 56% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Carrarese tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Virtus Entella edge out Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.56 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Carrarese attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 50% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 21%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 35%, Carrarese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.05 PPG, Carrarese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.