Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Vicenza Virtus welcome Empoli to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vicenza Virtus 1.33 PPG, Empoli 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vicenza Virtus register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Empoli in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Empoli trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 67% versus Empoli 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 100% | Empoli 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.53 xG and Empoli 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / defence 1.245 | Empoli attack 0.933 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Vicenza Virtus games / 41 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 42% | Draw 25% | Empoli 33%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Empoli 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vicenza Virtus as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 42% | Draw 25% | Empoli 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.53 / Empoli 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / def 1.245 | Empoli attack 0.933 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Empoli xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 42% chance of winning, Empoli a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Empoli in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D. Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (1.06) and Empoli's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
42%
2.39
25%
4.04
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.88
1.34
Empoli xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.34 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Empoli in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Empoli in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Empoli have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Vicenza Virtus or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Empoli in 67%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 67%, Empoli 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Vicenza Virtus and 33% for Empoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli in 67%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 33% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 33% of Empoli's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Empoli tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Empoli in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.