Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 13 as Vicenza Virtus welcome Carrarese to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 2W 3D 3L from 8 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.12 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.12 PPG (Vicenza Virtus) versus 0.80 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 62% versus Carrarese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 75% | Carrarese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.00 xG and Carrarese 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / defence 1.298 | Carrarese attack 0.919 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Vicenza Virtus games / 45 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 24% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 47%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 2.13. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Carrarese 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 24% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.00 / Carrarese 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / def 1.298 | Carrarese attack 0.919 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Carrarese xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 24% chance of winning, Carrarese a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Carrarese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 0.84x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
24%
4.24
29%
3.43
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.51
1.50
Carrarese xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
5%
19.07
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.50 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vicenza Virtus on 1.12 PPG, Carrarese on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.88 PPG overall record — Carrarese travel well.
The Goals Picture
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Carrarese away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.33 PPG; Carrarese away: 1.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 67%, Carrarese 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Vicenza Virtus and 0% for Carrarese.
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 33%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games; Carrarese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 33% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 0% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.