Venezia 3-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 October 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Venezia) versus 1.10 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Venezia, 2 for Sudtirol and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 51% versus Sudtirol 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 45% | Sudtirol 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.51 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.162 / defence 0.918 | Sudtirol attack 1.019 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.124. Data: 9 Venezia games / 47 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 44% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 23%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 40% | Sudtirol 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 44% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Venezia 1.51 / Sudtirol 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.162 / def 0.918 | Sudtirol attack 1.019 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Venezia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sudtirol xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Venezia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Venezia 3 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Venezia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Sudtirol part of?
Venezia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 44% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Venezia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sudtirol?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 2W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Venezia and Sudtirol in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.16) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
44%
2.27
33%
3.02
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.56
1.05
Sudtirol xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
5%
19.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Venezia and 1.05 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 8W 18D 21L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 14W 14D 19L from 47 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 0.89 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.32 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 8W 18D 21L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 14W 14D 19L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Sudtirol away?
Venezia's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.26 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Sudtirol runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Venezia
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 3, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Sudtirol?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 44%, Sudtirol 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Venezia) and 52% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 39% of games; Sudtirol in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Venezia's recent matches and 52% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Venezia's recent games and 52% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Sudtirol 3-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.51 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 44% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 23%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 45%, Sudtirol 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Sudtirol's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.89 PPG, Sudtirol 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.