Venezia 3-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Venezia at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 12 as Venezia welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Sampdoria — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Venezia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Venezia, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 5–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sampdoria trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 51% versus Sampdoria 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 47% | Sampdoria 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.07 xG and Sampdoria 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.296 / defence 0.859 | Sampdoria attack 0.918 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.062. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Venezia games / 49 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 64% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 12%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Sampdoria 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 40% | Sampdoria 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 64% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Venezia 2.07 / Sampdoria 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.296 / def 0.859 | Sampdoria attack 0.918 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Venezia (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sampdoria xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Venezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Venezia 3 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Venezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Venezia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 64% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Venezia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sampdoria?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 2W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Venezia and Sampdoria in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.30) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.14
12%
8.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.91
0.84
Sampdoria xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
8.33
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
66.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Venezia and 0.84 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 9W 18D 22L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 10W 20D 19L from 49 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 0.92 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 11D 10L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.98 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 9W 18D 22L in their last 49 games (0.92 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 10W 20D 19L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Venezia's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.39 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Sampdoria runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 3, Sampdoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Sampdoria 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Sampdoria?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 44%, Sampdoria 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Venezia) and 52% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Venezia have failed to score in 35% of games; Sampdoria in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Venezia's games and 74% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Venezia's recent games and 52% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Sampdoria 3-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.07 xG and Sampdoria 0.84 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.30 / defence 0.86 against Sampdoria attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 64% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 12%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 47%, Sampdoria 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.92 PPG, Sampdoria 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.