Venezia 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cagliari — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cagliari have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Venezia) versus 1.70 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Venezia, 0 for Cagliari and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 4–1 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 64% and Cagliari 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 49% | Cagliari 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.18 xG and Cagliari 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.926 / defence 1.280 | Cagliari attack 0.749 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.027. Data: 25 Venezia games / 25 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 40% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 30%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Cagliari 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Venezia 70% | Cagliari 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 40% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Venezia 1.18 / Cagliari 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.926 / def 1.280 | Cagliari attack 0.749 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Venezia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cagliari xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Cagliari kick off?
Venezia vs Cagliari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Cagliari?
Venezia 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Venezia vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Cagliari part of?
Venezia vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 40% chance of winning, Cagliari a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Venezia and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cagliari?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Venezia and Cagliari in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Cagliari (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.93) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.26
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.16
0.98
Cagliari xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Venezia and 0.98 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 13W 16D 34L from 63 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 15W 21D 27L across 63 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 0.87 PPG, Cagliari on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 6W 8D 17L from 31 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 12D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.00 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 13W 16D 34L in their last 63 games (0.87 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 21D 27L in their last 63 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Cagliari away?
Venezia's home record (0.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.84 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Cagliari runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Venezia
3
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cagliari?
From 7 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Cagliari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Cagliari 3-0 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 68%, Cagliari 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 42% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 26% of games; Cagliari in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Venezia's games and 48% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 42% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Cagliari tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Venezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 26, as Venezia and Cagliari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.18 xG and Cagliari 0.98 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Venezia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.93 / defence 1.28 against Cagliari attack 0.75 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 40% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 30%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 49%, Cagliari 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.87 PPG, Cagliari 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.