Ternana 1-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Spal at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ternana — All Games: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 1W 0D 2L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 2W 1D 2L from 5 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Spal have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Spal are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ternana register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Spal in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Spal in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ternana 80% and Spal 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 60% | Spal 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.34 xG and Spal 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.004 / defence 1.285 | Spal attack 0.733 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.384. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Ternana games / 5 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 33% | Spal 33%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Spal 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Spal (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 67% | Spal 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 33% | Spal 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Ternana 1.34 / Spal 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.004 / def 1.285 | Spal attack 0.733 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Ternana (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Spal xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Spal kick off?
Ternana vs Spal kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Spal?
Ternana 1 - 0 Spal.
Where is Ternana vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Spal part of?
Ternana vs Spal is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 34% chance of winning, Spal a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ternana and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Spal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Spal in?
Ternana (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Spal (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ternana's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
34%
2.91
33%
3.03
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.64
1.30
Spal xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ternana and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ternana and 1.30 for Spal, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ternana's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spal, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Spal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spal by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Spal in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Spal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Spal in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Spal have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Spal runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2022, when Spal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Spal specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ternana
2
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Spal have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Spal 1-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ternana at 80%, Spal at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ternana and 60% for Spal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Spal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Ternana's games and 60% of Spal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ternana's matches and 60% of Spal's.
Do Ternana and Spal tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Spal in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Spal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Spal 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.34 xG and Spal 1.30 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Spal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Spal attack 0.73 / defence 1.22, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 34% | Draw 33% | Spal 33%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 60%, Spal 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Spal's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Spal arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Ternana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ternana conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Spal managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.