Ternana 2-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Ternana (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Ternana's favour (1.10 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ternana, 1 for Reggina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Reggina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 65% versus Reggina 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ternana 45% | Reggina 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.21 xG and Reggina 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.072 / defence 1.364 | Reggina attack 0.611 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.249. Data: 20 Ternana games / 20 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 39% | Draw 31% | Reggina 30%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Reggina 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 50% | Reggina 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 39% | Draw 31% | Reggina 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Ternana 1.21 / Reggina 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.072 / def 1.364 | Reggina attack 0.611 / def 1.163 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Ternana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Reggina xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Reggina kick off?
Ternana vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Reggina?
Ternana 2 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Ternana vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Reggina part of?
Ternana vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 39% chance of winning, Reggina a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ternana and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Ternana and Reggina in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Reggina (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ternana's attack rating (1.07) and Reggina's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.61x) against Ternana's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
39%
2.60
31%
3.18
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.25
1.04
Reggina xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ternana and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Ternana and 1.04 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana's recent record stands at 6W 6D 8L from 20 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 9L across 20 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Ternana against 1.15 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggina's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.80 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Reggina in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Reggina have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Reggina away?
Ternana's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.30 PPG; Reggina away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ternana
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Reggina 2-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 50%, Reggina 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Ternana and 10% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Reggina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ternana's recent matches and 30% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ternana's recent games and 10% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Reggina tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Reggina in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Reggina 2-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.21 xG and Reggina 1.04 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reggina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.07 / defence 1.36 against Reggina attack 0.61 / defence 1.16, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 39% | Draw 31% | Reggina 30%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 45%, Reggina 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggina's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.20 PPG, Reggina 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.