Ternana 2-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Cosenza travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cosenza — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ternana 1.10 PPG, Cosenza 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ternana, 1 for Cosenza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Cosenza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Cosenza trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 63% versus Cosenza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 48% | Cosenza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.40 xG and Cosenza 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.941 / defence 1.233 | Cosenza attack 0.763 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.114. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Ternana games / 27 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 42% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 25%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Cosenza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Cosenza 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 42% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Ternana 1.40 / Cosenza 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.941 / def 1.233 | Cosenza attack 0.763 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Ternana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cosenza xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cosenza kick off?
Ternana vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cosenza?
Ternana 2 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Ternana vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cosenza part of?
Ternana vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 42% chance of winning, Cosenza a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ternana and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Ternana and Cosenza in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.94) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
42%
2.40
33%
2.99
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.45
1.05
Cosenza xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Ternana and 1.05 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 9W 7D 11L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 5W 8D 14L from 27 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ternana are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (6W 1D 6L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 6D 7L from 13 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 5W 8D 14L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cosenza away?
Ternana's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.46 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ternana have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ternana's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
2
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Ternana 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Cosenza?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 46%, Cosenza 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ternana) and 46% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cosenza in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Ternana's games and 69% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ternana's recent games and 46% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cosenza tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Cosenza 2-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.40 xG and Cosenza 1.05 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Cosenza attack 0.76 / defence 1.46, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 42% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 25%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 48%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.