Ternana 4-4 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ternana at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Monday 18 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Frosinone have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Frosinone away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Ternana, 1.60 for Frosinone — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ternana 0W, Frosinone 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 62% versus Frosinone 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 50% | Frosinone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.52 xG and Frosinone 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.039 / defence 1.352 | Frosinone attack 0.750 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.053. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Ternana games / 34 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 45% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 24%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Frosinone 4.17. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Ternana 30% | Frosinone 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 45% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Ternana 1.52 / Frosinone 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.039 / def 1.352 | Frosinone attack 0.750 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Ternana (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Frosinone xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Frosinone kick off?
Ternana vs Frosinone kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Frosinone?
Ternana 4 - 4 Frosinone.
Where is Ternana vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Frosinone part of?
Ternana vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 45% chance of winning, Frosinone a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ternana and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Ternana and Frosinone in?
Ternana (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ternana's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.75x) against Ternana's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.31
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.59
1.07
Frosinone xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
5%
18.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ternana and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ternana and 1.07 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 8D 13L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.59 PPG from 34 outings (14W 12D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Ternana against 1.59 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ternana's home form reads 8W 1D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.44 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Frosinone in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 13W 8D 13L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 14W 12D 8L in their last 34 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Frosinone away?
Ternana's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.47 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Ternana or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Frosinone in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ternana
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Ternana 2-3 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 41%, Frosinone 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ternana) and 35% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Frosinone in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Ternana's recent matches and 47% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ternana's recent games and 35% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Frosinone tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Frosinone share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 35, as Ternana and Frosinone drew 4-4 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.52 xG and Frosinone 1.07 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Frosinone outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.04 / defence 1.35 against Frosinone attack 0.75 / defence 1.40, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 45% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 24%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 50%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.38 PPG, Frosinone 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.