Ternana 0-3 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Como at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Como — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Como have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ternana at 1.30 PPG versus Como's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ternana have won 0, Como 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Como in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ternana 58% and Como 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 51% | Como 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.42 xG and Como 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.885 / defence 0.752 | Como attack 1.006 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.058. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ternana's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Ternana games / 55 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 49% | Draw 32% | Como 19%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Como 5.26. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 30% | Como 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 49% | Draw 32% | Como 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Ternana 1.42 / Como 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.885 / def 0.752 | Como attack 1.006 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Ternana (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Como xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Como kick off?
Ternana vs Como kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 December 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Como?
Ternana 0 - 3 Como.
Where is Ternana vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Como part of?
Ternana vs Como is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 49% chance of winning, Como a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Como?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ternana and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Como?
Record (2 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Como 1W.
What form are Ternana and Como in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Como (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ternana's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
49%
2.03
32%
3.14
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.22
0.80
Como xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
5%
22.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ternana and 0.80 for Como, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 14D 19L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.15 PPG from 55 outings (14W 21D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.45 PPG, Como on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ternana's home form reads 13W 5D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (6W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.20 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Como in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 22W 14D 19L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Como have gone 14W 21D 20L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Como away?
Ternana's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.63 PPG; Como away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Ternana or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Como in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Como go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2022, when Como won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ternana
1
Draws
5
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Como have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Como last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 37%, Como 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ternana) and 52% (Como).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Ternana's recent matches and 70% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ternana's recent games and 52% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Como tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Como in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Como run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Ternana 0-3 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.42 xG and Como 0.80 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ternana fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Como outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.89 / defence 0.75 against Como attack 1.01 / defence 1.39, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 49% | Draw 32% | Como 19%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Como win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 51%, Como 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.45 PPG, Como 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.