Ternana 3-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Ternana take on Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Ternana (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Cittadella have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cittadella are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Ternana 2W, Cittadella 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 57% versus Cittadella 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 55% | Cittadella 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.86 xG and Cittadella 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.850 / defence 0.913 | Cittadella attack 0.807 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.188. Cittadella's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Ternana games / 58 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 32% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 32%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Cittadella 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ternana's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 50% | Cittadella 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 32% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Ternana 0.86 / Cittadella 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.850 / def 0.913 | Cittadella attack 0.807 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cittadella xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cittadella kick off?
Ternana vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cittadella?
Ternana 3 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Ternana vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cittadella part of?
Ternana vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 32% chance of winning, Cittadella a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ternana and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cittadella?
Record (5 meetings): Ternana 2W | Draws 2 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Ternana and Cittadella in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Cittadella (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.85) and Cittadella's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.81x) against Ternana's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
36%
2.77
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.74
0.88
Cittadella xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 15.4 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Ternana and 0.88 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 16D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (19W 22D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Ternana against 1.36 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 9W 9D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (7W 12D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.05 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 15W 16D 27L in their last 58 games (1.05 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 19W 22D 17L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cittadella away?
Ternana's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.29 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Ternana or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cittadella in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
2
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cittadella?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Cittadella have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Ternana 3-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Cittadella?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 50%, Cittadella 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ternana) and 32% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 29% of games; Cittadella in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ternana's recent matches and 54% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ternana's recent games and 32% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cittadella tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cittadella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Cittadella 3-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.86 xG and Cittadella 0.88 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against Cittadella attack 0.81 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 32% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 55%, Cittadella 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cittadella's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.05 PPG, Cittadella 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.