Sudtirol 1-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 41%, yet in-form Pisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Sudtirol welcome Pisa to Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sudtirol — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Sudtirol have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Pisa away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Sudtirol have won 2, Pisa 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Sudtirol 2–2 Pisa — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sudtirol trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Pisa trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sudtirol 54% and Pisa 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Pisa 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sudtirol surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Pisa surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.67 xG and Pisa 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.107 / defence 1.272 | Pisa attack 1.013 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.137. Sudtirol's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 46 games and Pisa's last 46.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 41% | Draw 26% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.43 | Draw 3.78 | Pisa 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 50% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 80% (last 10 away games).

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