Sudtirol vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 36%, yet in-form Mantova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sudtirol welcome Mantova to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mantova are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sudtirol, 2 for Mantova and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mantova trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Mantova 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 35% | Mantova 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.22 xG and Mantova 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.888 / defence 0.892 | Mantova attack 1.102 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Sudtirol games / 40 Mantova games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 36% | Draw 30% | Mantova 33%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Mantova 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mantova (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Mantova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 36% | Draw 30% | Mantova 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Sudtirol 1.22 / Mantova 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.888 / def 0.892 | Mantova attack 1.102 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mantova xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Mantova kick off?
Sudtirol vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Mantova part of?
Sudtirol vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 36% chance of winning, Mantova a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sudtirol and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Mantova?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 2 | Mantova 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Mantova in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Mantova (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.89) and Mantova's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.32
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.38
1.16
Mantova xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.16 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 19D 13L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.30 PPG from 40 outings (15W 7D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.08 PPG, Mantova on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sudtirol's home form reads 5W 8D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.25 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 19D 13L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Mantova have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Mantova away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.15 PPG; Mantova away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Mantova won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Sudtirol 0-3 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 45%, Mantova 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sudtirol) and 55% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 45% of games; Mantova in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 40% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sudtirol's recent games and 55% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Mantova tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mantova in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.