Sudtirol 2-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Sudtirol welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sudtirol 1.30 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 1 for Juve Stabia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 58% versus Juve Stabia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 58% | Juve Stabia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.974 / defence 1.142 | Juve Stabia attack 0.844 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.191. Data: 71 Sudtirol games / 33 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Juve Stabia 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Sudtirol 1.33 / Juve Stabia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.974 / def 1.142 | Juve Stabia attack 0.844 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Sudtirol 2 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia part of?
Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 39% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sudtirol and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.97x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.29
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.47
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.15 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 9W 8D 16L from 33 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 9L across 33 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sudtirol heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 4W 6D 6L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 3W 8D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.18 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 9W 8D 16L in their last 33 games (1.06 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 13W 11D 9L in their last 33 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Juve Stabia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.12 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Juve Stabia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sudtirol at 81%, Juve Stabia at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sudtirol) and 44% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Sudtirol's games and 62% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sudtirol's recent games and 44% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Juve Stabia 2-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Juve Stabia attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 39% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 31%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 58%, Juve Stabia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Sudtirol winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.