Spezia 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Spezia take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Pisa meet at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Serie B (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Spezia (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Spezia's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pisa have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Pisa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 51% | Pisa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.61 xG and Pisa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.664 / defence 1.078 | Pisa attack 0.767 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.182. Spezia's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Pisa's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Spezia's last 7 games and Pisa's last 45.
Result probabilities: Spezia 19% | Draw 42% | Pisa 40%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 5.34 | Draw 2.40 | Pisa 2.52. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Spezia's lower xG of 0.61 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 19% and away win at 40% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.59 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Spezia's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 9 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 19% | Draw 42% | Pisa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% (Under 79%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Spezia 0.61 / Pisa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.664 / def 1.078 | Pisa attack 0.767 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Pisa xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Pisa kick off?
Spezia vs Pisa kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Pisa?
Spezia 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Spezia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Spezia vs Pisa part of?
Spezia vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 19% chance of winning, Pisa a 40% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Spezia and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Spezia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (79%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.66) and Pisa's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.77x) against Spezia's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 7 games and Pisa's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
19%
5.34
42%
2.40
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.59
0.98
Pisa xG
5.34
19%
Home win
2.40
42%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
54%
1.84
Win to Nil
7%
14.20
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.4 | 20.0 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.0%.
How many goals are Spezia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Spezia and 0.98 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 6W 15D 24L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 13W 16D 16L from 45 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 0.82 PPG from their last 22 home games (3W 9D 10L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 6W 10D 6L from their last 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.20 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
Spezia (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Spezia vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 6W 15D 24L in their last 45 games (0.73 PPG), while Pisa have gone 13W 16D 16L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.82 PPG; Pisa away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Spezia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Spezia and Pisa, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spezia
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Pisa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Spezia 3-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Pisa?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 50%, Pisa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Spezia) and 27% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 46%; Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games; Pisa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Spezia's recent matches and 41% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Spezia's recent games and 27% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Spezia's recent matches and 46% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Pisa finished level at 0-0 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.61 xG and Pisa 0.98 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.66 / defence 1.08 against Pisa attack 0.77 / defence 0.83, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 19% | Draw 42% | Pisa 40%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 51%, Pisa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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