Spezia 2-1 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Pescara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Pescara meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Alberto Picco this season.
Pescara have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pescara's away record: 0W 3D 4L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Spezia against 0.80 for Pescara. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pescara in 86%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Pescara — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 53% and Pescara 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 35% | Pescara 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.55 xG and Pescara 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.760 / defence 1.180 | Pescara attack 0.961 / defence 1.530. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.077. Spezia's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.530 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Spezia games / 17 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 44% | Draw 28% | Pescara 29%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Pescara 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Pescara 86% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 44% | Draw 28% | Pescara 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Spezia 1.55 / Pescara 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.760 / def 1.180 | Pescara attack 0.961 / def 1.530 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Spezia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Pescara xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Pescara kick off?
Spezia vs Pescara kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Pescara?
Spezia 2 - 1 Pescara.
Where is Spezia vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Pescara part of?
Spezia vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 44% chance of winning, Pescara a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Spezia and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Pescara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Pescara in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Pescara (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.76) and Pescara's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pescara's attack (0.96x) against Spezia's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.61
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.77
1.22
Pescara xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Spezia and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Spezia and 1.22 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Pescara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spezia come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 5D 9L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pescara sit at 0.76 PPG from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Spezia against 0.76 for Pescara. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Spezia's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Pescara have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.29 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Pescara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Pescara in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Pescara have gone 2W 7D 8L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Pescara away?
Spezia's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.71 PPG; Pescara away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Pescara have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Pescara 1-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Pescara?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Spezia, 86% for Pescara — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Spezia) and 71% (Pescara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Spezia's games and 86% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Spezia's matches and 71% of Pescara's.
Do Spezia and Pescara tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Pescara in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Pescara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Pescara 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.55 xG and Pescara 1.22 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Pescara attack 0.96 / defence 1.53, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 44% | Draw 28% | Pescara 29%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 35%, Pescara 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Pescara's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.82 PPG, Pescara 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.