Spezia 2-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spezia welcome Palermo to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Picco. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Spezia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spezia, 1 for Palermo and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 45% versus Palermo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 42% | Palermo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.69 xG and Palermo 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.258 / defence 0.799 | Palermo attack 0.925 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.095. Spezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Spezia's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Spezia games / 62 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Palermo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 50% | Palermo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Spezia 1.69 / Palermo 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.258 / def 0.799 | Palermo attack 0.925 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Spezia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Palermo xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Palermo kick off?
Spezia vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Palermo?
Spezia 2 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Spezia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Palermo part of?
Spezia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 57% chance of winning, Palermo a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Palermo?
Record (3 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Spezia and Palermo in?
Spezia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spezia's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.70
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.50
0.81
Palermo xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
3%
33.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Spezia and 0.81 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 26D 14L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.32 PPG from 62 outings (22W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.48 PPG, Palermo on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Spezia's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.35 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 22W 26D 14L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Palermo have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Palermo away?
Spezia's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.77 PPG; Palermo away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Spezia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palermo in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Spezia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
2
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Palermo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 50%, Palermo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Spezia) and 47% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Spezia's games and 60% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Spezia's recent games and 47% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Palermo tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palermo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Palermo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, as Spezia and Palermo drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.69 xG and Palermo 0.81 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.26 / defence 0.80 against Palermo attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.48 PPG, Palermo 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.