Spezia 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Spezia take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 19). Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Spezia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Spezia have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Modena (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Modena are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Modena — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 46% versus Modena 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 52% | Modena 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.88 xG and Modena 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.636 / defence 0.883 | Modena attack 0.874 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Spezia's attack rating of 0.636 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Spezia's last 18 games and Modena's last 56.
Result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 34% | Modena 33%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.09 | Draw 2.92 | Modena 2.99. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Spezia's lower xG of 0.88 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 74% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Spezia's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Spezia 30% (last 10 home games) | Modena 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 34% | Modena 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Spezia 0.88 / Modena 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.636 / def 0.883 | Modena attack 0.874 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Modena xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Modena FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Modena kick off?
Spezia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Modena?
Spezia 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Spezia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Modena part of?
Spezia vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 32% chance of winning, Modena a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Spezia and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Spezia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.87x) against Spezia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 18 games and Modena's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
34%
2.92
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.78
0.90
Modena xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.2 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Spezia and 0.90 for Modena, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia come into this having played 56 games, going 8W 20D 28L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.34 PPG from 56 outings (20W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Spezia's home form reads 4W 12D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 5D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Modena
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Modena in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 8W 20D 28L in their last 56 games (0.79 PPG), while Modena have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.89 PPG; Modena away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Modena have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won Modena 3-0 Spezia on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
3
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Modena?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Modena 3-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 44%, Modena 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Spezia) and 56% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 48% of games; Modena in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Modena matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Spezia's recent matches and 59% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Spezia's recent games and 56% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Spezia's recent matches and 67% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 19, as Spezia and Modena drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.88 xG and Modena 0.90 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.64 / defence 0.88 against Modena attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 32% | Draw 34% | Modena 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 52%, Modena 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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