Spezia 4-2 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Spezia take on Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Cittadella at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Spezia have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cittadella — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cittadella away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spezia at 1.20 PPG versus Cittadella's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Spezia have won 0, Cittadella 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Spezia 1–4 Cittadella — a Cittadella win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Cittadella trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 48% versus Cittadella 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 50% | Cittadella 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Spezia surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Cittadella have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.83 xG and Cittadella 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.628 / defence 0.955 | Cittadella attack 0.769 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Spezia's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Cittadella's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Spezia's last 24 games and Cittadella's last 62.
Result probabilities: Spezia 30% | Draw 37% | Cittadella 33%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.32 | Draw 2.72 | Cittadella 3.02. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Spezia's lower xG of 0.83 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Spezia's last 10 home games and Cittadella's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Spezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Cittadella 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 30% | Draw 37% | Cittadella 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Spezia 0.83 / Cittadella 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.628 / def 0.955 | Cittadella attack 0.769 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cittadella xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Cittadella FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Cittadella kick off?
Spezia vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Cittadella?
Spezia 4 - 2 Cittadella.
Where is Spezia vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Cittadella part of?
Spezia vs Cittadella is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 30% chance of winning, Cittadella a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Spezia and Cittadella will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Spezia vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.63x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 24 games and Cittadella's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.32
37%
2.72
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.71
0.88
Cittadella xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Cittadella Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Spezia and 0.88 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia's recent record stands at 9W 23D 30L from 62 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 21L across 62 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cittadella by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 4W 14D 12L from their last 30 home games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cittadella's away record stands at 7W 12D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.03 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Cittadella (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Cittadella Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 9W 23D 30L in their last 62 games (0.81 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 19W 22D 21L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.87 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Spezia or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Cittadella in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Spezia have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Spezia won Spezia 5-0 Cittadella.
Spezia's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Spezia
0
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Cittadella H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cittadella?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 3, Cittadella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Cittadella last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Cittadella 0-2 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Cittadella?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 47%, Cittadella 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Spezia) and 33% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 47% of games; Cittadella in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Cittadella Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Cittadella matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Spezia's recent matches and 53% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Cittadella matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Spezia's recent games and 33% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Cittadella matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Spezia's recent matches and 70% of Cittadella's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cittadella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Cittadella 4-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.83 xG and Cittadella 0.88 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cittadella outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.63 / defence 0.95 against Cittadella attack 0.77 / defence 0.99, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 30% | Draw 37% | Cittadella 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 50%, Cittadella 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cittadella's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 25
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →