Spal 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pisa at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Spal versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 22 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spal have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Pisa arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Spal 0W, Pisa 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 58% versus Pisa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spal 47% | Pisa 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.05 xG and Pisa 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.076 / defence 1.395 | Pisa attack 0.922 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.264. Data: 19 Spal games / 19 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 24% | Draw 26% | Pisa 50%. Fair-value odds: Spal 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 2.00. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spal 80% | Pisa 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 24% | Draw 26% | Pisa 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Spal 1.05 / Pisa 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.076 / def 1.395 | Pisa attack 0.922 / def 0.999 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Pisa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Pisa xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Pisa kick off?
Spal vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Spal vs Pisa?
Spal 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Spal vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Spal vs Pisa part of?
Spal vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 24% chance of winning, Pisa a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Spal and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Spal and Pisa in?
Spal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.08x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.92x) against Spal's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
24%
4.19
26%
3.83
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Spal xG
Total xG
2.68
1.63
Pisa xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
5%
21.34
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Spal and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Spal and 1.63 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spal come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 6D 8L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Spal's home form reads 1W 4D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.89 points per game from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spal are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.42 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Pisa in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Pisa have gone 11W 5D 3L in their last 19 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 0.78 PPG; Pisa away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Spal or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Pisa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spal have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
1
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Pisa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Pisa 1-2 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 89% for Spal, 56% for Pisa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spal) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Spal's games and 56% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Spal's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Pisa tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Pisa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spal's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 20, as Spal and Pisa drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.05 xG and Pisa 1.63 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spal fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.08 / defence 1.40 against Pisa attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 24% | Draw 26% | Pisa 50%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 47%, Pisa 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.