Spal 1-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Spal take on Perugia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Perugia travel to Stadio Paolo Mazza to take on Spal. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Spal have gone 2W 3D 0L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Spal are significantly better at Stadio Paolo Mazza than their overall form suggests.
Perugia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 0L across 5 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 5 games (100%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spal 1.30 PPG, Perugia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Spal in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Perugia in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 50% versus Perugia 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spal 40% | Perugia 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 0.84 xG and Perugia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.263 / defence 1.180 | Perugia attack 0.719 / defence 0.665. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.134. Spal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 0.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Perugia's defence strength of 0.665 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Spal games / 10 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 28% | Draw 36% | Perugia 35%. Fair-value odds: Spal 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Perugia 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Spal 80% | Perugia 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 28% | Draw 36% | Perugia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Spal 0.84 / Perugia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.263 / def 1.180 | Perugia attack 0.719 / def 0.665 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Perugia xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Perugia kick off?
Spal vs Perugia kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Perugia?
Spal 1 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Spal vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Perugia part of?
Spal vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 28% chance of winning, Perugia a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Spal and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Perugia in?
Spal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spal's attack rating (1.26) and Perugia's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.52
36%
2.74
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Spal xG
Total xG
1.80
0.96
Perugia xG
3.52
28%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Spal and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Spal and 0.96 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spal's recent record stands at 3W 4D 3L from 10 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 2L across 10 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.30 PPG, Perugia on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spal have managed 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Spal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Perugia's away record stands at 2W 3D 0L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — Perugia travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 0.90 scored and 0.70 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Perugia in 30%.
Defensively: Perugia in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Perugia in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Perugia have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Perugia away?
Spal's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.80 PPG; Perugia away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Spal or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Perugia in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Spal's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spal
3
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Perugia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Spal 1-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Perugia see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 80%, Perugia 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Spal) and 20% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 100%; Perugia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Spal's recent matches and 0% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Spal's recent games and 20% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Perugia tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Perugia in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Perugia edge out Spal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Spal 1-2 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 0.84 xG and Perugia 0.96 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Perugia outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.26 / defence 1.18 against Perugia attack 0.72 / defence 0.67, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 28% | Draw 36% | Perugia 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Perugia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 40%, Perugia 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.30 PPG, Perugia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.