Spal 5-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Paolo Mazza plays host to Spal versus Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Spal (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cosenza have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Spal against 1.40 for Cosenza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spal lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Spal — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cosenza — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 55% versus Cosenza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 45% | Cosenza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.22 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 0.947 / defence 1.076 | Cosenza attack 0.805 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.124. Data: 47 Spal games / 47 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 42% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 29%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Cosenza 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spal are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Spal 40% | Cosenza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 42% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Spal 1.22 / Cosenza 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 0.947 / def 1.076 | Cosenza attack 0.805 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Spal (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cosenza xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Cosenza kick off?
Spal vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Cosenza?
Spal 5 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Spal vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Cosenza part of?
Spal vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 42% chance of winning, Cosenza a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Spal and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Spal 1W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Spal and Cosenza in?
Spal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spal's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.81x) against Spal's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.46
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Spal xG
Total xG
2.19
0.97
Cosenza xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Spal and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Spal and 0.97 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spal's recent record stands at 11W 19D 17L from 47 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 22L across 47 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Spal against 1.04 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spal have managed 6W 8D 9L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 1W 10D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spal are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.98 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 11W 19D 17L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Cosenza away?
Spal's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.13 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spal won 5-0 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spal have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spal
1
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Cosenza 1-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Cosenza?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 61%, Cosenza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Spal) and 35% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Spal's games and 56% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Spal's recent games and 35% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Cosenza tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spal run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Cosenza 5-0 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.22 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Spal beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cosenza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Cosenza attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 42% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 29%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 45%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.11 PPG, Cosenza 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spal win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.