Sampdoria vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 38%, yet in-form Benevento provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sampdoria vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.

Benevento have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Benevento arrive in superior form — a 0.77 PPG advantage (1.57 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Trading Data

Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.

Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 86% and Benevento 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 71% | Benevento 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.20 xG and Benevento 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.931 / defence 1.116 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 45 Sampdoria games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sampdoria 38% | Draw 32% | Benevento 30%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Benevento 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benevento (1.57 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Benevento 57%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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