Reggina 1-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Venezia at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Oreste Granillo to take on Reggina. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggina — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Reggina are significantly better at Stadio Oreste Granillo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Venezia are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Reggina, 0 for Venezia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Reggina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reggina in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Venezia in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 38% versus Venezia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 45% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.09 xG and Venezia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.879 / defence 1.357 | Venezia attack 0.841 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.006. Data: 69 Reggina games / 31 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 33% | Draw 31% | Venezia 36%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Venezia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 40% | Venezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 33% | Draw 31% | Venezia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Reggina 1.09 / Venezia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.879 / def 1.357 | Venezia attack 0.841 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Venezia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Venezia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Venezia kick off?
Reggina vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Venezia?
Reggina 1 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Reggina vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Venezia part of?
Reggina vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 33% chance of winning, Venezia a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reggina and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Reggina and Venezia in?
Reggina (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Venezia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.88) and Venezia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
33%
3.01
31%
3.25
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.24
1.15
Venezia xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Reggina and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Reggina and 1.15 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggina's recent record stands at 27W 12D 30L from 69 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 36L across 69 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggina by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 16W 4D 14L from 34 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 8W 8D 18L across 34 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggina are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.99 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 61%.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Venezia in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 27W 12D 30L in their last 69 games (1.35 PPG), while Venezia have gone 15W 18D 36L in their last 69 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Venezia away?
Reggina's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.53 PPG; Venezia away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Reggina or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Venezia in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggina and Venezia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Venezia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Reggina 1-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Venezia?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 35%, Venezia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Reggina) and 44% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 38% of games; Venezia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Reggina's recent matches and 53% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Reggina's recent games and 44% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Venezia tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggina defy the odds to beat Venezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Venezia 1-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.09 xG and Venezia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.88 / defence 1.36 against Venezia attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 33% | Draw 31% | Venezia 36%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Reggina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 45%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Venezia's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.