Reggiana 1-3 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sudtirol make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sudtirol have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Reggiana against 1.40 for Sudtirol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Sudtirol and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 50% versus Sudtirol 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Sudtirol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.47 xG and Sudtirol 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 1.030 / defence 1.051 | Sudtirol attack 0.884 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.061. Data: 42 Reggiana games / 42 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 47% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 24%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 4.17. Reggiana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 40% | Sudtirol 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 47% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Reggiana 1.47 / Sudtirol 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 1.030 / def 1.051 | Sudtirol attack 0.884 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sudtirol xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Sudtirol kick off?
Reggiana vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Reggiana 1 - 3 Sudtirol.
Where is Reggiana vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Sudtirol part of?
Reggiana vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 47% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reggiana and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Reggiana 1W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Sudtirol in?
Reggiana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.88x) against Reggiana's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.37
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.46
0.99
Sudtirol xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
5%
18.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.99 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 18D 12L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol's form line: 14W 11D 17L from 42 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Reggiana against 1.26 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (4W 12D 4L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.24 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 12W 18D 12L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Sudtirol away?
Reggiana's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.20 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sudtirol have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 0-4 on 3 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Reggiana
1
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 1, Sudtirol have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 55%, Sudtirol 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Reggiana) and 50% (Sudtirol).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Reggiana's games and 65% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Reggiana's recent games and 50% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Reggiana 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.47 xG and Sudtirol 0.99 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 47% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 24%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 38%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.29 PPG, Sudtirol 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.