Reggiana 2-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reggiana at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Reggiana welcome Carrarese to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Carrarese have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Reggiana) versus 1.10 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reggiana, 0 for Carrarese and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reggiana trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Carrarese trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 42% versus Carrarese 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 35% | Carrarese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.775 / defence 1.003 | Carrarese attack 0.704 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.078. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Reggiana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Reggiana games / 26 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 44% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 21%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Carrarese 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 30% | Carrarese 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 44% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Reggiana 1.20 / Carrarese 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.775 / def 1.003 | Carrarese attack 0.704 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Carrarese xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Carrarese kick off?
Reggiana vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Reggiana 2 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Reggiana vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Carrarese part of?
Reggiana vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 44% chance of winning, Carrarese a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Reggiana and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Carrarese in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
44%
2.27
35%
2.89
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Reggiana xG
Total xG
1.96
0.76
Carrarese xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.76 for Carrarese, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 7W 8D 11L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 12L across 26 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.12 PPG, Carrarese on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 1W 3D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.92 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Carrarese away?
Reggiana's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.23 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carrarese in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Carrarese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggiana's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
3
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Reggiana 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Carrarese?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 38%, Carrarese 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Reggiana) and 46% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reggiana have failed to score in 46% of games; Carrarese in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Reggiana's recent matches and 54% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Reggiana's recent games and 46% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Carrarese tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Carrarese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Carrarese finished level at 2-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.76 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Carrarese attack 0.70 / defence 1.24, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 44% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 21%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 35%, Carrarese 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.12 PPG, Carrarese 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.