Pordenone 1-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Guido Teghil plays host to Pordenone versus Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pordenone's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Pordenone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggina (all games): 2W 2D 0L across 4 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Reggina are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Pordenone half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 0% versus Reggina 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 50% | Reggina 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.81 xG and Reggina 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.674 / defence 1.420 | Reggina attack 0.796 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.375. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Pordenone games / 4 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 18% | Draw 29% | Reggina 54%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 5.56 | Draw 3.45 | Reggina 1.85. Reggina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 0% | Reggina 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 18% | Draw 29% | Reggina 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Pordenone 0.81 / Reggina 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.674 / def 1.420 | Reggina attack 0.796 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Reggina (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Reggina xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Reggina kick off?
Pordenone vs Reggina kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Reggina?
Pordenone 1 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Pordenone vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Reggina part of?
Pordenone vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 18% chance of winning, Reggina a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pordenone and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Reggina in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-L-L-L. Reggina (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pordenone's attack at 0.67x the league average against Reggina's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.80x) against Pordenone's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
18%
5.61
29%
3.50
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.36
1.56
Reggina xG
5.61
18%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
4%
26.58
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.56 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pordenone's recent record stands at 0W 0D 4L from 4 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pordenone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 0L across 4 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggina by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pordenone are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pordenone have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Reggina in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Early Season
Reggina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Reggina in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Reggina have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
1
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Reggina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Reggina 2-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Reggina?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 0%, Reggina 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pordenone) and 50% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pordenone's recent matches and 75% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pordenone's recent games and 50% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Reggina tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Reggina in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone and Reggina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 5, as Pordenone and Reggina drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.81 xG and Reggina 1.56 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.67 / defence 1.42 against Reggina attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 18% | Draw 29% | Reggina 54%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 50%, Reggina 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Reggina's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pordenone scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.