Pordenone 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pordenone host Como at Stadio Guido Teghil in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pordenone have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Guido Teghil — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Como — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Como's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Como — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pordenone have won 0, Como 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Como winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pordenone in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Como in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 46% versus Como 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pordenone 39% | Como 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.03 xG and Como 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.690 / defence 1.471 | Como attack 0.901 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.105. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Pordenone games / 28 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 23% | Draw 33% | Como 44%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Como 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 50% | Como 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 23% | Draw 33% | Como 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Pordenone 1.03 / Como 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.690 / def 1.471 | Como attack 0.901 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Como (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Como xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Como kick off?
Pordenone vs Como kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Como?
Pordenone 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Pordenone vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Como part of?
Pordenone vs Como is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 23% chance of winning, Como a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Como?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pordenone and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Pordenone 0W | Draws 0 | Como 1W.
What form are Pordenone and Como in?
Pordenone (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Como (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pordenone's attack at 0.69x the league average against Como's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
23%
4.29
33%
3.05
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.49
1.46
Como xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
5%
18.54
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.46 for Como, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pordenone come into this having played 28 games, going 2W 6D 20L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (8W 12D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pordenone's home form reads 1W 4D 9L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.29 points per game from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pordenone are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Como in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 2W 6D 20L in their last 28 games (0.43 PPG), while Como have gone 8W 12D 8L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.50 PPG; Como away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pordenone and Como runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
1
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Como?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Como have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Como last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Pordenone 1-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 50%, Como 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Pordenone) and 50% (Como).
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pordenone's games and 71% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pordenone vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Pordenone's recent games and 50% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Como tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Como in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pordenone and Como finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 1.03 xG and Como 1.46 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.69 / defence 1.47 against Como attack 0.90 / defence 1.47, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 23% | Draw 33% | Como 44%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 39%, Como 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.