Pisa vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Sampdoria travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sampdoria — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sampdoria — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Pisa have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Sampdoria have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Pisa winning.
The historical record gives Pisa a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Sampdoria trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 42% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Sampdoria 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.02 xG and Sampdoria 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.806 / defence 1.045 | Sampdoria attack 0.875 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 2 Pisa games / 40 Sampdoria games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 32% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 35%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Sampdoria 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Pisa dominate the H2H record, yet Sampdoria are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 60% | Sampdoria 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 32% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Pisa 1.02 / Sampdoria 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.806 / def 1.045 | Sampdoria attack 0.875 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sampdoria xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Sampdoria kick off?
Pisa vs Sampdoria is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Where is Pisa vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Sampdoria part of?
Pisa vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 32% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pisa and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sampdoria?
Record (4 meetings): Pisa 4W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Pisa and Sampdoria in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.81) and Sampdoria's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
32%
3.09
32%
3.09
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.10
1.08
Sampdoria xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pisa and 1.08 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Pisa have picked up 0.52 PPG on a 3W 12D 25L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria's form line: 11W 12D 17L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sampdoria are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 0.65 PPG from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 7D 11L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.92 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 3W 12D 25L in their last 40 games (0.52 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Sampdoria away?
Pisa's home record (0.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.65 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Pisa
0
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Sampdoria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Sampdoria 0-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Sampdoria?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 35%, Sampdoria 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pisa) and 40% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 60% of games; Sampdoria in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Pisa's recent matches and 60% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pisa's recent games and 40% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.