Pisa 1-1 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Pordenone travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 6W 1D 1L from 8 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.38 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 4W 0D 0L from 4 Serie B appearances (3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.38 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Pordenone have recorded 0W 1D 7L from 8 outings — 0.12 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 2.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.75 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 3L across 3 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Pisa are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 2.26 PPG ahead (2.38 vs 0.12). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Pordenone in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 62% versus Pordenone 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Pordenone 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.92 xG and Pordenone 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.130 / defence 0.920 | Pordenone attack 0.671 / defence 1.592. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.134. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.592 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Pisa games / 8 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 66% | Draw 22% | Pordenone 12%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Pordenone 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 25% | Pordenone 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 66% | Draw 22% | Pordenone 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 44% | xG Pisa 1.92 / Pordenone 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.130 / def 0.920 | Pordenone attack 0.671 / def 1.592 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Pisa (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Pordenone xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Pordenone kick off?
Pisa vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Pordenone?
Pisa 1 - 1 Pordenone.
Where is Pisa vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Pordenone part of?
Pisa vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 66% chance of winning, Pordenone a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pisa and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Pordenone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Pordenone in?
Pisa (all comps): 6W-1D-1L in 8 | 2.38 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Pordenone (all comps): 0W-1D-7L in 8 | 0.12 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Pordenone's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
66%
1.53
22%
4.46
12%
8.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.62
0.70
Pordenone xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
8.26
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
2%
56.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Pisa and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Pisa and 0.70 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Pordenone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Pisa have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 6W 1D 1L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pordenone's form line: 0W 1D 7L from 8 games, 0.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 2.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pordenone.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.38 PPG overall — Pisa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pordenone have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.62 scored and 2.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 games (2.38 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 0W 1D 7L in their last 8 (0.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Pordenone away?
Pisa's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 3.00 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Pisa or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pordenone in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Pordenone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Pordenone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Pordenone 0-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Pordenone?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Pisa 33% BTTS, Pordenone 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pisa) and 67% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Pordenone in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pisa's recent matches and 33% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pisa's recent games and 67% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Pordenone tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Pordenone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 9, as Pisa and Pordenone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.92 xG and Pordenone 0.70 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pisa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Pordenone attack 0.67 / defence 1.59, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 66% | Draw 22% | Pordenone 12%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Pordenone 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Pordenone's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.