Pisa 3-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Mantova meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 7W 2D 1L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Pisa's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Mantova's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pisa, 0 for Mantova and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 3–2 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Mantova half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 55% versus Mantova 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Mantova 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 2.11 xG and Mantova 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.248 / defence 0.919 | Mantova attack 1.026 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.089. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Pisa games / 29 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 61% | Draw 23% | Mantova 16%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Mantova 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Mantova 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 61% | Draw 23% | Mantova 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Pisa 2.11 / Mantova 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.248 / def 0.919 | Mantova attack 1.026 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Pisa (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Mantova xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Mantova kick off?
Pisa vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Mantova?
Pisa 3 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Pisa vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Mantova part of?
Pisa vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 61% chance of winning, Mantova a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pisa and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Mantova?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Pisa and Mantova in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Mantova (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pisa's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (1.03x) against Pisa's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.30
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Pisa xG
Total xG
3.14
1.03
Mantova xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
51.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Pisa and 1.03 for Mantova, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 16W 7D 6L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Mantova's form line: 6W 12D 11L from 29 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mantova.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pisa have posted 2.36 PPG from 14 outings (10W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Pisa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mantova have gone 1W 6D 7L from 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.14 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Mantova in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 16W 7D 6L in their last 29 games (1.90 PPG), while Mantova have gone 6W 12D 11L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Mantova away?
Pisa's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.36 PPG; Mantova away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pisa
0
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Mantova have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Pisa 3-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Mantova?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 57%, Mantova 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Pisa and 57% for Mantova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mantova in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pisa's games and 71% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Pisa's matches and 57% of Mantova's.
Do Pisa and Mantova tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mantova in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Mantova 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 2.11 xG and Mantova 1.03 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Mantova attack 1.03 / defence 1.40, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 61% | Draw 23% | Mantova 16%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Mantova 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Mantova's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.