Pisa 1-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Frosinone travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 6W 3D 0L this season (9 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Frosinone — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 1L across 8 road games this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.90 PPG, Frosinone 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Frosinone trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Frosinone 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 22% | Frosinone 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.10 xG and Frosinone 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.985 / defence 0.831 | Frosinone attack 1.028 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 0.994 / away 1.248. Data: 18 Pisa games / 18 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 33%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Frosinone 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 44% | Frosinone 62%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Pisa 1.10 / Frosinone 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.985 / def 0.831 | Frosinone attack 1.028 / def 1.126 | league avg home 0.994 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Pisa (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Frosinone xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Frosinone kick off?
Pisa vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Frosinone?
Pisa 1 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Pisa vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Frosinone part of?
Pisa vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 35% chance of winning, Frosinone a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pisa and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Frosinone in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.98) and Frosinone's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
35%
2.85
32%
3.17
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.17
1.07
Frosinone xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pisa and 1.07 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 5D 2L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (6W 10D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Frosinone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 5W 3D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone in 61%.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 11W 5D 2L in their last 18 games (2.11 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 6W 10D 2L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Frosinone away?
Pisa's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.25 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Pisa or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Frosinone in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Pisa 1-0 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Frosinone 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Pisa and 25% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Frosinone in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pisa's games and 62% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Pisa's recent games and 25% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Frosinone tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Pisa 1-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.10 xG and Frosinone 1.07 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Frosinone attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 35% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 33%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 22%, Frosinone 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with Frosinone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.