Pisa 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Como meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Como (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Como have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Como arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Pisa, 0 for Como and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2023, ended Pisa 2–2 Como — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Como half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 54% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 44% | Como 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.19 xG and Como 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.055 / defence 1.164 | Como attack 1.027 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.216. Data: built from Pisa's last 49 games and Como's last 48.
Result probabilities: Pisa 29% | Draw 30% | Como 41%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.48 | Draw 3.33 | Como 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 80% (last 10 home games) | Como 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Como | Competition: Serie B, matchday 12 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 29% | Draw 30% | Como 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Pisa 1.19 / Como 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.055 / def 1.164 | Como attack 1.027 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Como (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Como xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Como FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Como kick off?
Pisa vs Como kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Como?
Pisa 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Pisa vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Como part of?
Pisa vs Como is a Serie B fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 29% chance of winning, Como a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Como?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pisa and Como will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pisa vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.05x the league average against Como's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.03x) against Pisa's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 49 games and Como's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.33
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.64
1.45
Como xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Como Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Pisa and 1.45 for Como, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa's recent record stands at 14W 17D 17L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Como, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 14L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Pisa against 1.33 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 8W 6D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Como's away record stands at 4W 11D 9L across their last 24 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Como
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Como (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Como Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Como in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 14W 17D 17L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Como have gone 15W 19D 14L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Como away?
Pisa's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.25 PPG; Como away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Pisa or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Como in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Pisa and Como, the earliest from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Como have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won Como 5-0 Pisa on 22 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Pisa
3
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Como H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Como?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 2, Como have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Como last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Como 5-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 67%, Como 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Pisa) and 46% (Como).
On the defensive side: Como in 33%; Como in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Como Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Como matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pisa's games and 50% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Como matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Pisa's recent games and 46% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Como matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Pisa's recent matches and 71% of Como's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Como finished level at 1-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.19 xG and Como 1.45 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Como attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 29% | Draw 30% | Como 41%, with Como to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Como 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.23 PPG, Como 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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