Pisa 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bari at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Bari encounter.

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Match Analysis

Pisa host Bari at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Pisa have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Pisa have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bari — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Bari's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bari — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Pisa have won 0, Bari 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Pisa 1–2 Bari — a Bari win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Bari in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 54% versus Bari 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 44% | Bari 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.98 xG and Bari 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.006 / defence 1.140 | Bari attack 0.951 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.041. Data: built from Pisa's last 41 games and Bari's last 42.

Result probabilities: Pisa 29% | Draw 34% | Bari 37%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.42 | Draw 2.96 | Bari 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pisa 70% (last 10 home games) | Bari 40% (last 10 away games).

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